Evaluation of Recently Implemented Harvest Regulations in a Data‐Limited Catfish Fishery with Bayesian Estimation

Abstract In 2015, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources changed size and harvest limits for catfishes (Blue Catfish Ictalurus furcatus , Flathead Pylodictis olivaris Channel I. punctatus ) in lower Ohio River to match those neighboring states. The new regulations imposed a daily limit one 88.9‐cm (35‐in) or larger Blue per fisher, 71.1‐cm (28‐in) 33.0‐cm (13‐in) minimum length all species, with no restrictions between these lengths (permissive slot). When management were implemented, potential efficacy was unknown. goal this study evaluate effects using limited data baseline demographic parameters. Bayesian modeling used estimate growth mortality because ability derived functions parameters associated uncertainty (as credible intervals). Yield‐per‐recruit (YPR) fishing rates ( F that would induce overfishing MAX yield at (YPR three scenarios: (former regulation), limit, enacted permissive slot limits. Model results suggested catfish stocks are unlikely benefit from current given near‐complete overlap YPR intervals estimable scenarios small significant differences (1–3%) based on most restrictive scenarios. Despite existence they likely biologically irrelevant life histories species. Although implemented will not affect population demographics fishery River, post hoc evaluation examining accuracy predictions is needed improve precision parameter estimates.